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Critical issues in the interpretation of results of probabilistic service life calculations



Author(s): J. Gulikers
Paper category: Workshop
Book title: International RILEM Workshop on Integral Service Life Modelling of Concrete Structures
Editor(s): R.M. Ferreira, J. Gulikers, C. Andrade
Print ISBN: 978-2-35158-058-5
e-ISBN: 978-2-35158-090-5
Publisher: RILEM Publications SARL
Pages: 195 - 204
Total Pages: 10
Language: English


Abstract: 
There is a trend to apply a probabilistic approach for service life design of steel reinforced concrete structures. In contrast to a deterministic approach, a sufficient amount of statistical information on each model parameter should be available as to characterise the parameters by a mean value, standard deviation and probability density distribution. The outcome of such an approach is a probability that initiation of reinforcement corrosion occurs. However, such a result is not easily understood by the owner as it provides no information on the actual condition of the structure in terms of cracked and spalled concrete surface. It appears that an unambiguous definition of probability cannot be given and consequently the acceptable probability level is based on arbitrary grounds. In addition, the lack of understanding of it’s meaning implies that probabilistic calculations of the propagation stage of reinforcement corrosion are not possible. Moreover, experience has indicated that a probabilistic approach is more prone to manipulation of the input data as to achieve the desired result. However, without considerable experience it is considered difficult to reveal such practices.


Online publication: 2013
Publication Type: full_text
Public price (Euros): 0.00


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